There are a lot of resources available about algorithms, risk assessments, pretrial risk assessments, recidivism, and more! Here are some recommended readings, broken down by category:
- Algorithms and Artificial Intelligence
- Pretrial Risk Assessment Basics
- Anti-Pretrial Risk Assessment Arguments
- Pro-Pretrial Risk Assessment Arguments
- Pretrial Detention, Bail, Race, and the Criminal Legal System
- Statistics and Validation of tools
- Demographic Variables in RATs
- Pretrial Tools
Algorithms and Artificial Intelligence
Pretrial Risk Assessment Basics
| Ameshia Cross: Bail Reform National Landscape, Pretrial Justice Institute (2019) |
| Brandon Buskey and Andrea Woods: Making Sense of Pretrial Risk Assessments, The Champion (2018) |
| Charles Summers and Tim Willis: Pretrial Risk Assessment: Research Summary, Bureau of Justice Assistance (2010) |
| Jodi L. Viljoen, Melissa R. Jonnson, Dana M. Cochrane, Lee M. Vargen, and Gina M. Vincent: Impact of Risk Assessment Instruments on Rates of Pretrial Detention, Postconviction Placements, and Release: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis, Law and Human Behavior (2019) |
| Jon Schuppe: Post Bail: America’s justice system runs on the exchange of money for freedom. Some say that’s unfair. But can data fix it?, NBC News (2017) |
| Heather M. Harris, Justin Goss, and Alexandria Gumbs: Pretrial Risk Assessment in California, Technical Appendices, Public Policy Institute of California (2019) |
| Matt Henry: Risk Assessment: Explained, The Appeal (2019) |
| Ohio Criminal Sentencing Commission: Comprehensive lists of major tools, OCSC Pretrial Risk Assessment Tool Compendium (2017) |
| Pamela M Casey, Jennifer K Elek, Roger K Warren, Fred Cheesman, Matt Kleiman, and Brian Ostrom: Offender Risk & Needs Assessment Instruments: A Primer for Courts, National Center for State Courts (2014) |
| Phillip Knoxx and Peter Keifer: The Risks and Rewards of Risk Assessments, National Center for State Courts (2017) |
| Sarah L Desmarais and Evan M Lowder: Pretrial Risk Assessment Tools: A Primer for Judges, Prosecutors, and Defense Attorneys, MacArthur Foundation Safety and Justice Challenge (2019) |
| Sarah L Desmarais and Jay P Singh: Risk Assessment Instruments Validated and Implemented in Correctional Settings in the United States, Council of State Governments Justice Center (2013) |
| Stanford Law School Policy Lab: Stanford Pretrial Risk Assessment Tools Factsheet Project |
Anti-Pretrial Risk Assessment
Pro-Pretrial Risk Assessment
| Anne Milgram: Why smart statistics are the key to fighting crime, TED Talk (2013) |
| Cara Thompson: Myths and Facts-Using Risk and Needs Assessments to Enhance Outcomes and Reduce Disparities in the Criminal Justice System, National Institute of Corrections and Community Corrections Collaborative Network (2017) |
| Cindy Redcross, Brit Henderson, Luke Miratrix, and Erin Valentine: Evaluation of Pretrial Justice System Reforms that use the Public Safety Assessment: Effects in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, MDRC Center for Criminal Justice Research (2019) |
| Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan: Human Decisions and Machine Predictions, The National Bureau of Economic Research (2017) |
| Kamala Harris and Rand Paul: Harris, Paul Introduce Bill to Encourage States to Reform or Replace Unjust, Costly Money Bail System (Press Release) (2017) |
| Lisa Pilnik and editors Barbara Hankey, Elizabeth Simoni, Spurgeon Kennedy, Leland J. Moore, and Jim Sawyer: A Framework for Pretrial Justice: Essential Elements of an Effective Pretrial System and Agency, National Institute of Corrections (2017) |
| Pretrial Justice Institute: Pretrial Risk Assessment: Science Provides Guidance on Assessing Defendants (2015) |
| Sarah Picard, Matt Watkins, Michael Rempel, and Ashmini G Kerodal: Beyond the Algorithm: Pretrial Reform, Risk Assessment, and Racial Fairness, |
| William Dieterich, Christina Mendoza, and Tim Brennan: COMPAS Risk Scaes: Demonstrating Accuracy Equity and Predictive Parity, Northpointe Inc Research Department (2016) |
Pretrial Detention, Bail, Race, and the Criminal Legal System
Statistics and Validation of Tools
| Cynthia A. Mamalian: State of the Science of Pretrial Risk Assessment, Pretrial Justice Institute (2011) |
| Diana Mindrila and Phoebe Balentyne: Scatterplots and Correlation, The Basic Practice of Statistics (6th ed.) |
| Dr. Jacqueline van Wormer: Whatcom County Pretrial Development Project |
| Kelly D Johnson and Patricia L Hardyman: How do you know if the risk assessment instrument works? Topics in Community Corrections (2004) |
| Kristin Bechtel, Christopher Lowenkamp, and Alex Holsinger: Identifying the Predictors of Pretrial Failure: A Meta-Analysis, (2011) |
| Laurel Eckhouse, Kristian Lum, Cynthia Conti-Cook, and Julie Ciccolini: Layers of Bias: A Unified Approach for Understanding Problems With Risk Assessment, Criminal Justice and Behavior (2018) |
| Saeed Safari, Alireza Baratloo, Mohamed Elfil, and Ahmed Negida: Evidence Based Emergency Medicine; Part 5 Receiver Operating Curve and Area under the Curve, Emergency (2016) |
Demographic Variables in RATs
Demographic variables common in pretrial RATs include:
Age
| Advancement Project, Education Law Center, FairTest, The Forum for Education and Democracy, Juvenile Law Center, & NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, Inc: Federal Policy, ESEA Reauthorization, and the School-to-Prison Pipeline |
| Barbara Robles-Ramamurthy and Clarence Watson: Examining Racial Disparities in Juvenile Justice, The Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law (2019) |
| Barry C. Feld: Punishing Kids in Juvenile and Criminal Courts, University of Chicago Press Journals (2018) |
| Campaign for Youth Justice: Key Facts: Youth in the Justice System (2016) |
| Christopher Hartney and Fabiana Silva: And Justice for Some: Differential Treatment of Youth of Color in the Justice System, National Council on Crime and Delinquency (2007) |
| Elizabeth S. Scott and Laurence. D. Steinberg: Rethinking Juvenile Justice, Harvard University Press (2008) |
| Kristin Henning: Criminalizing Normal Adolescent Behavior in Communities of Color: The Role of Prosecutors in Juvenile Justice Reform, Cornell Law Review (2013) |
| LAPD: How Gangs are Identified |
| Lincoln Anthony Blades: The Criminal Justice System Discriminates Against Children of Color, Teen Vogue (2018) |
| Malcolm C. Young and Jenni Gainsborough: Prosecuting Juveniles in Adult Court: An Assessment of Trends and Consequences, The Sentencing Project (2000) |
| Megan T. Stevenson and Christopher Slobogin: Algorithmic Risk Assessments and the Double-Edged Sword of Youth, Washington University Law Review and Vanderbilt Law (2018) |
| Nancy A. Heitzeg: Education or Incarceration: Zero Tolerance Policies and the School to Prison Pipeline, Forum on Public Policy (2009) |
| Susan Young, Ben Greer, and Richard Church: Juvenile delinquency, welfare, justice and therapeutic interventions: a global perspective, BJPsych Bulletin (2017) |
| The W. Haywood Burns Institute for Justice Fairness & Equity: Unbalanced Youth Justice: Disparity Gap Incarceration Rate & About |
Housing
Substance Use
| ACLU: Marijuana Arrests by the Numbers |
| Alyssa C. Mooney, Eric Giannella, M. Maria Glymour, Torsten B. Neilands, Meghan D. Morris, Jacqueline Tulsky, and May Sudhinaraset: Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Arrests for Drug Possession After California Proposition 47, 2011–2016, American Journal of Public Health, Criminal Justice (2018) |
| Drug Policy Alliance: Race and the Drug War |
| Emily Feinstein, Linda Richter and Susan E Foster: Addressing the Critical Health Problem of Adolescent Substance Use Through Health Care, Research, and Public Policy, Journal of Adolescent Health (2012) |
| Innocence Staff: Racial Disparities Evident in New York City Arrest Data for Marijuana Possession, Innocence Project (2018) |
| Lisa D. Moore and Amy Elkavich: Who’s Using and Who’s Doing Time: Incarceration, the War on Drugs, and Public Health, American Journal of Public Health (2011) |
| National Institutes of Health: Addiction and Criminal Justice |
| Samantha Melamed: Philadelphia police are searching more cars for marijuana — but finding less of it, critics say, The Philadelphia Inquirer (2019) |
| Sarra L. Hedden, Joel Kennet, Rachel Lipari, Grace Medley, Peter Tice, Elizabeth A. P. Copello, and Larry A. Kroutil: Behavioral Health Trends in the United States: Results from the 2014 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (2014) |
| The National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse, Behind Bars II: Substance Abuse and America’s Prison Population, (2010) |
| Treatment Advocacy Center: Victimization and Serious Mental Illness (2016) |
Mental Health
| Alina Perez, Steven Leifman, and Ana Estrada: Reversing the Criminalization of Mental Illness, Sage Journals (2003) |
| Jennifer Bronson and Marcus Berzofsky: Indicators of Mental Health Problems Reported by Prisoners and Jail Inmates, Bureau of Justice Statistics (2017) |
| John Junginger, Keith Claypoole, Ranilo Laygo, and Annette Crisanti: Effects of Serious Mental Illness and Substance Abuse on Criminal Offenses, Psychiatric Services (2006) |
| Lena Wen and Joshua M. Sharfstein: Unrest in Baltimore: the role of public health, JAMA Network (2015) |
Employment
| Richard Rothstein: From Ferguson to Baltimore: The Fruits of Government-Sponsored Segregation, Economic Policy Institute (2015) |
| State of Black America: Locked Out: Education, Jobs & Justice, National Urban League (2016) |
| U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Labor Force Characteristics by Race and Ethnicity, BLS Reports (2017) |
| Valerie Wilson: Black unemployment is at least twice as high as white unemployment at the national level and in 14 states and the District of Columbia, Economic Policy Institute (2019) |
Pretrial Tools
| Alaska Scale (AK 2-Scale) Alaska Department of Corrections |
| Alaska Scale: Pamela Cravez: Pretrial Risk Assessment Tool developed for Alaska, Alaska Justice Forum (2018) |
| Alaska: Laws of Alaska, 2019, CCS HB 49 |
| Allegheny Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument Profile FTA Scale and Re-Arrest Scale |
| Allegheny tool: Pretrial Justice Institute: The Transformation of Pretrial Services in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania: Development of Best Practices and Validation of Risk Assessment (2007) |
| COMPAS: Northpointe: Practitioners Guide to COMPAS (2012) |
| COMPAS: Equivant, Northpointe, Inc: Practitioners Guide to COMPAS Core (2019) |
| COMPAS: Standford Law School Policy Lab: Risk Assessment Factsheet: Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) Pretrial Release Risk Scale – II (PRRS-II) (2019) |
| COMPAS: Sharon Lansing New York State COMPAS-Probation Risk and Need Assessment Study: Examining the Recidivism Scale’s Effectiveness and Predictive Accuracy, Division of Criminal Justice Services, Office of Justice Research and Performance Criminal Justice Research Report |
| COMPAS: Sample COMPAS Risk Assessment COMPAS “CORE” |
| Connecticut tool: Alex Tsarkov Report to the Governor and the General Assembly on Pretrial Release and Detention in Connecticut, Connecticut Sentencing Commission (2017) |
| CPAT: Victoria A. Terranova and Kyle C. Ward Colorado Pretrial Assessment Tool Validation Phase One Executive Summary, Pretrial Justice Institute and JFA Institute (2012) |
| CPAT: CPAT Administration, Scoring, and Reporting Manual, Version 1, The Pretrial Justice Institute (2013) |
| CPAT: The Colorado Pretrial Assessment Tool (CPAT): Administration, Scoring, and Reporting Manual, Version 2, Colorado Association of Pretrial Services (2015) |
| Correctional Assessment and Intervention System (CAIS): Megan E. Collins, Emily M. Glazener, Christina D. Stewart, and Dr. James P. Lynch, Follow-Up Report to the MSCCSP: Using Assessment Instruments During Criminal Sentencing, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland (2015) |
| Dallas County, TX: John Creuzot, Criminal District Attorney, Dallas County Texas, 2019 |
| DELPAT: Alan Davis: Delaware Pretrial Assessment Tool, Chief Magistrate (2018) |
| DELPAT: House Bill 204, 149th General Assembly (2017-2018) |
| DC Pretrial Risk Assessment: Spurgeon Kennedy, Laura House, Michael Williams, Using Research to Improve Pretrial Justice and Public Safety: Results from PSA’s Risk Assessment Validation Project, Pretrial Services Agency for the District of Columbia (2013) |
| FPRAI: James Austin, Avi Bhati, Michael Jones, and Roger Ocker Florida Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument, The JFA Institute (2010) |
| Iowa tool: Lettie Prell Validation of the 5th Judicial District Pretrial Release Point Schedule on Polk County Defendants, Iowa Department of Corrections (2008) |
| IRAS-PAT: Eric Grommon, Brad Ray, Dona Sapp, and Rachel Thelin: Process Evaluation of the IRAS-PAT Pilot Program Implementation: Report to the Indiana Office of Court Services, Center for Criminal Justice Research, School of Public and Environmental Affairs, and Indiana University Public Policy Institute (2017) |
| IRAS-PAT: Indiana Office of Court Services: Pretrial Release: An Indiana Supreme Court Pilot Project (2019) |
| Kansas: 2018 Statute: Article 28 – Conditions of Release |
| LSI-R: D.A. Andrews, James Bonta, Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) MHS Assessments |
| Maryland tools: Open Society Foundations: Steps in the Right Direction: Maryland Counties Leading the Way in Pretrial Services, Criminal and Juvenile Justice Program, Open Society Institute-Baltimore (2018) |
| Maryland tools: Angela Roberts and Nora Eckert: As Maryland courts meld artificial intelligence into bail decisions, concerns follow, Capital News Service (2018) |
| Michigan Joint Task Force on Jail and Pretrial Incarceration: Report and Recommendations (2020) |
| MNPAT: Marcy R. Podkopacz and Tracy Loynachan: Hennepin County 2015 Adult Pretrial Scale Validation Minnesota Judicial Branch (2015) |
| Minnesota Judicial Branch: Completing the Pretrial Release Evaluation Form and Assessment Tool, Minnesota State Court Administrator’s Office (2019) |
| Nevada Pretrial Risk Assessment Administrative Office of the Courts |
| New Mexico: Statute 5-401. Pretrial Release |
| New Jersey: Chloe Anderson, Cindy Redcross, Erin Valentine, and Luke Miratrix: Evaluation of Pretrial Justice System Reforms That Use the Public Safety Assessment Effects of New Jersey’s Criminal Justice Reform, Pretrial Justice Reform Study, MDRC Center for Criminal Justice Research (2019) |
| New Jersey Courts Criminal Justice Reform Information Center (2018) |
| New York City Criminal Justice Agency Release Assessment CJA Annual Report (2017) |
| NYC: New York City Criminal Justice Agency: Guide to Pretrial Release Assessment (2019) and Release Assessment |
| ORAS-PAT: Edward Latessa, Paula Smith, Richard Lemke, Matthew Makarios, and Christopher Lowenkamp, The Creation and Validation of the Ohio Risk Assessment System (ORAS), University of Cincinnati (2009) |
| ORAS-PAT: Ohio Risk Assessment System, Department of Rehabilitation and Correction |
| Oregon: The Public Safety Checklist for Oregon Criminal Justice Commission |
| Proxy tool: Brad Bogue, William Woodward, and Lore Joplin: Using a Proxy Score to Pre-Screen Offenders for Risk to Reoffend (2006) |
| Public Safety Assessment (PSA), Laura and John Arnold Foundation |
| Public Safety Assessment: Developing a National Model for Pretrial Risk Assessment Laura and John Arnold Foundation (2013) |
| Public Safety Assessment: Matthew DeMichele, Peter Baumgartner, Michael Wenger, Kelle Barrick, Megan Comfort, and Shilpi Misra: The Public Safety Assessment: A Re-Validation and Assessment of Predictive Utility and Differential Prediction by Race and Gender in Kentucky |
| Public Safety Assessment (New Jersey): Glenn A. Grant: Jan 1-Dec 31 2018 Report to the Governor and the Legislature, New Jersey Courts, Criminal Justice Reform (2018) |
| Riverside Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument: Brian Lovins and Lori Lovins: Riverside Pretrial Assistance to California Counties (PACC) Project: Validation of a Risk Assessment Tool, Correctional Consultants Inc. (2016) |
| Santa Clara Risk Assessment Instrument: David J. Levin Santa Clara County, California Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument Pretrial Justice Institute (2012) |
| Sonoma Pretrial Assessment Tool (2015) |
| Strafford County, New Hampshire: Pretrial Programming, Community Corrections (2020) |
| VPRAI: Marie VanNostrand: Assessing Risk Among Pretrial Defendants in Virginia: The Virginia Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument, Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services (2003) |
| VPRAI: Kenneth Rose: A “New Norm” For Pretrial Justice in the Commonwealth of Virginia Pretrial Risk-based Decision Making Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services (2013) |
| VPRAI: VA Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument Training and Instruction Manual |
| VPRAI: Marie VanNostrand and Kenneth J. Rose Pretrial Risk Assessment in Virginia, Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services and Virginia Community Criminal Justice Association. Research by Luminosity, Inc. (2009) |
| VPRAI: Mona J.E. Danner, Marie VanNostrand, and Lisa M. Spruance: Risk-Based Pretrial Release Recommendation and Supervision Guidelines, Luminosity, Inc (2015) |
| VPRAI-R: Mona J.E. Danner, Marie VanNostrand, and Lisa M. Spruance Race and Gender Neutral Pretrial Risk Assessment Release Recommendations, and Supervision: VPRAI and Praxis Revised, Luminosity, Inc (2016) |
| VPRAI-R: Virginia Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument Instruction Manual – Version 4.3, Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services (2018) |
| VPRAI-R: Kenneth Rose: Virginia Pretrial Risk Assessment Instrument (VPRAI) and Praxis Overview, Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services (2018) |
| Washington State Adult Static Risk Assessment Washington Courts (2012) |
| Washington ASRA: Carl McCurley: Development, Testing, and Use of…The Adult Static Risk Assessment, Washington State Center for Court Research (2015) |
